A Hundred-Year War

It is not always easy to determine how serious President Donald Trump is about the decisions he announces. He often makes declarations and retreats from them with equal speed. One moment he threatens to erase Iranian civilization from existence; the next, he is pursuing a historic agreement with Tehran.

There is little doubt about the American president’s intentions and ambitions. The concern lies rather in his impulsiveness and the consequences that may follow. Trump is dealing in this region with issues whose roots stretch back thousands of years, while surrounding himself with advisers who are relatively new to the complexities of the area and possess limited experience.

Three times, he reportedly urged President Ahmed al-Sharaa to enter Lebanon and strike Hezbollah. Such a proposal risks igniting fires that would know no boundaries. There are countless unresolved issues embedded within the fragile Syrian-Lebanese relationship—fragilities that can erupt rapidly in a landscape burdened by profound political, sectarian, ethnic, and communal tensions.

Perhaps Mr. Thomas Barrack, the de facto high commissioner for the Fertile Crescent, could offer his president a brief lesson on the history of the Syrian people and their conflicts. That is, unless Mr. Barrack himself originated the proposal. It would hardly be the first or last initiative advanced in the language of high commissioners.

The American president’s suggestion provoked alarm across the Arab world and in every country aware of its potential dangers. It undoubtedly stirred concerns within Syria itself, which is painstakingly attempting to restore stability and preserve its unity.

“Sharaa’s Syria” remains in the early stages of rejoining the ranks of stable states after eight decades marked by military adventures, the shifting fortunes of Baathist rule, and, among those adventures, perhaps the most futile of all—the Syrian experience in Lebanon.

And now comes a proposal that would send the Syrian army back into Lebanon on a combat mission, one certain to awaken dormant passions and inflame old grievances of every kind.

How much kinder it would be—for Syria, Lebanon, and the Arab world as a whole—if each country remained within its own borders. And if those who crossed into Syria to fight sectarian battles returned to Lebanon instead.

Trump’s proposal is not a plan for a limited operation.

It is a proposal for a war that could last a hundred years.