The Logic of a Solution

On the eve of the U.S. war against Iraq, rhetoric grew increasingly harsh and positions became more entrenched. France was still attempting to mediate and calm tensions between the two sides. But when it became clear that the situation had passed the point of no return, President François Mitterrand made his famous remark: “It is over. We have entered the logic of war.”

The Trump-Iran agreement, scheduled to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, marks a broad entry into the logic of a solution. Yet both parties understand that the road ahead will be long, complex, and filled with periods of tension and calm, mutual suspicions, lingering distrust, and unresolved grievances.

Each side is keen to emphasize that it is acting out of necessity rather than choice, and that the agreement represents a settlement rather than a reconciliation. Even now, officials from both camps continue to exchange unfriendly statements. The difference, however, is that everything now falls within the framework of a negotiated solution.

This shift explains why global stock markets reacted positively and why Trump quickly turned to discussing the economy before anything else. While sanctions have undoubtedly exhausted Iran, the war has also weighed heavily on the American economy and disrupted markets around the world.

Over the next two months, each side will attempt to extract as much benefit from the agreement as possible. Trump seeks political gains that could strengthen his electoral prospects, while Tehran aims to consolidate and safeguard the regime. It is evident that Trump has celebrated his eightieth year, while Tehran no longer appears as concerned about the survival of the regime as it was during the early stages of the conflict.

All possibilities remain open. Yet Iran has once again accepted the principle of “drinking the poison chalice,” including abandoning the nuclear dream. The order to accept such a compromise comes from the Supreme Leader, who has lost his father amid the turmoil of the conflict. Nevertheless, politics is ultimately about realities and interests.

The Switzerland agreement may eventually expand into a new political roadmap for the region. And forgive me for once again referring to the article by Abdulrahman Al-Rashed on “the most dangerous clause in the agreement.” As always, he sketches a path that few anticipate, looking beyond the visible developments to what may lie ahead.

We may all find ourselves moving from an agreement to a treaty—and from war to a respite between warriors.

Originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat.