The Makkah Agreement

The day before yesterday, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan signed a defense alliance agreement known as the “Makkah Agreement.” The agreement stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three countries shall be considered an attack against all three. This represents a shift from separate or fragmented forms of cooperation among the three countries toward a principle of collective deterrence and defense, although the practical details governing the implementation of their military commitments have yet to be disclosed.

The agreement sends a strong message to the countries of the region and to the wider world. It could also represent a major strategic shift if it is successfully institutionalized and transformed into a genuine institutional framework bringing the three countries together, rather than remaining merely a “coalition of good intentions” or another temporary alliance of the kind that periodically emerges in the region before eventually fading away.

The significance of the agreement essentially rests on two main considerations.

The first is the weight of the signatory states and the diversity of their sources of power, which makes them appear to complement one another.

Saudi Arabia brings substantial financial power, Arab and Gulf influence, and growing military capabilities. It also carries profound symbolic and religious significance in the Muslim world. It is therefore no coincidence that Makkah was chosen as the name of the agreement.

Türkiye, meanwhile, is a major military power with an advanced defense industry and an increasingly significant presence and influence across virtually every regional issue—from Libya to Sudan and from Syria to Gaza. Its military is also the second-largest in NATO in terms of personnel, after that of the United States. Many observers regard Türkiye as a potential bulwark or deterrent force vis-à-vis Israel, one that could compel Israel to think twice before expanding its military attacks against countries in the region.

Pakistan, despite its economic difficulties and the generous assistance it has received from Saudi Arabia on several occasions, has succeeded in building a firmly established military and nuclear capability. It has also begun to offer a political model in which power is shared between the civilian establishment, represented by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and the military leadership, represented by Army Chief Asim Munir. Moreover, its leadership of mediation efforts between the United States and Iran has enhanced Pakistan’s presence and influence in the Middle East and the Arab world.

The second consideration is the context in which the agreement was concluded.

All three countries are allies of the United States. Their announcement of this alliance does not necessarily mean that it is intended to counter their alliance with Washington. It does, however, implicitly indicate that all three—Saudi Arabia in particular—have come to feel that an alliance with the United States alone is insufficient to guarantee their security.

The alliance also comes against the backdrop of a U.S. war against Iran and Iranian-backed groups operating in several Arab countries, where they have posed threats to regional stability, as well as Israeli attempts to dominate countries across the region through overwhelming military force.

If the agreement succeeds in establishing practical mechanisms for its implementation—including a unified military command structure, permanent institutions, joint forces and operational plans, clear decision-making mechanisms, and detailed military commitments—it would mean that we are witnessing the emergence of a new defense alliance capable of reshaping many of the strategic dynamics of the region and the wider world.

Originally published in Al-Masry Al-Youm.