Could the Houthis Deliver a Surprise?

As the curtain begins to fall on the “two-year war in Gaza,” with all parties agreeing to President Trump’s initiative, the signals of hard deterrence—reflected in recent U.S. military movements—suggest that the region may be heading toward a new phase of escalation.

These developments include the arrival of 18 aerial refueling aircraft, multiple aircraft carriers, and large naval assets in the Middle East, alongside Washington’s announcement of repositioning part of its forces from Iraq. In addition, discussions within the corridors of the Pentagon, statements by the U.S. Secretary of Defense about readiness “to go to war to make peace” during a meeting with 800 American officers, and remarks by Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the “wars of the coming year” (which has already begun according to the Hebrew calendar), all point to preparations for a U.S.–Israeli military operation, supported by Europe, being carefully planned to ensure its success.

A Potential Military Operation

If deterrence fails to secure concessions, this anticipated action would likely target Iran and its allies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, aiming to complete what has not been achieved in recent months. This includes neutralizing Tehran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, restricting the Houthis’ operational capacity, removing Hezbollah from the internal and regional balance of power, and ending Iranian influence in Iraq—moves that would ultimately reshape the regional balance of power.

To provide political and security justifications and shape global public opinion in favor of such a war, a series of steps, decisions, and statements have already been put in place. These serve as a launching point that could justify military actions by the U.S.–Israeli axis to significantly weaken—or eliminate—any future threats posed by these actors.

Among these developments:

• The Iranian nuclear file has reached a deadlock.
• Relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency are at their worst.
• The Russian–Chinese proposal has failed in the UN Security Council.
• European and international sanctions on Iran have resumed.
• The truce between the Houthis and Washington has collapsed.
• The European Union has entered into direct confrontation with the Houthis.
• Hezbollah continues to refuse disarmament.
• Washington has designated certain Iraqi factions as terrorist organizations, laying the groundwork for targeting them as part of efforts to dismantle Iranian influence in Baghdad.

Toward a New Phase of Escalation

Amid global distraction with escalating tensions between Russia and Europe, and given that preconditions often lead to outcomes, the coming phase is likely to be filled with developments and surprises that could reshape spheres of influence and centers of power.

Although the ultimate objective of such a war would be to defeat Iran’s regional project and limit any future Chinese or Russian presence, a key question remains:
Will the confrontation begin with Iran itself, or with the dismantling of its “proxy arms” in Beirut, Sana’a, and Baghdad—or will it unfold simultaneously across all fronts?

The “Houthi Surprise”

The expected “Houthi surprise” could emerge under the banner of retaliation against Israel for its repeated strikes. This may take the form of significant attacks on Israeli targets, potentially resulting in high casualties through ballistic missile strikes or drone attacks on civilian or military sites.

Alternatively, the Houthis could carry out a high-impact operation targeting a U.S. naval destroyer using cruise missiles or suicide drones in the Red Sea or the Gulf of Aden.

Despite their primarily land-based capabilities within Yemen, a bold amphibious operation cannot be ruled out—possibly targeting an island or facility linked to Israel or the United States in the Red Sea. The Houthis might also attempt a maritime commando operation against civilian targets, such as a large Israeli-linked commercial vessel, a shipping facility operated by a Western company, or oil tankers—aiming to create political and media shock.

Lebanon and Iraq: Parallel Escalation

On the Lebanese and Iraqi fronts, if the situation escalates into an open Israeli–Iranian war, Hezbollah is likely to open a northern front against Israel through intensive rocket fire, diverting Israeli military focus away from Yemen and Iran.

In Iraq, retaliatory dynamics would also intensify, with Iran-aligned militias launching rockets and drones at U.S. bases in western and northern Iraq and eastern Syria—while simultaneously facing strong counterstrikes.

Conclusion

Ultimately, the realities of the balance of power suggest that the outcome would likely favor the U.S.–Israeli axis in military terms. However, on a strategic level, the real loser would be Arab national security, which would lose its remaining indirect deterrence tools.

In such a scenario, Israel would, for the foreseeable future, emerge as the dominant actor—holding the first and final word in shaping the region’s future.

Director of the International Foresight Network