The European Union and the Myth of the “Great Replacement”

Is the European Union destined to meet the same fate as the Roman Empire?

This question has resurfaced in recent weeks following remarks by Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš in an interview with the Financial Times, in which he warned that “the European Union may be heading down the same path as the Roman Empire at the end of its existence.”

What exactly did Babiš mean by this alarming prediction?

The Czech leader was criticizing Brussels’ policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, arguing that such measures are “pushing the European economy toward the abyss.”

For many Europeans, however, the transition to clean or green energy represents a crucial response to the worsening global ecological crisis caused by climate change. This commitment was underscored by European Commissioner for Economy Valdis Dombrovskis, who stated in April that “Europe has no intention of abandoning its green energy agenda in the face of the energy crisis resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.”

What made Babiš’s remarks particularly striking was his connection between environmental policies and the decline of industries such as coal, iron, and steel—the traditional backbone of industrial economies—which he believes are suffering as a consequence of Europe’s strategic choices.

Energy has become an increasingly emotional and contentious subject within Europe. Nearly half of the European Union’s electricity is now generated from renewable sources, meaning that the other half still depends heavily on Russian gas or Middle Eastern oil, both of which face growing supply uncertainties.

Adding to the challenge is the fact that much of Europe’s energy infrastructure is more than forty years old and was not designed to accommodate large volumes of locally generated renewable electricity or distribute it efficiently across the continent.

Returning to the central theme of the debate, however, it is difficult to argue that energy policy played any role in the collapse of the Roman Empire.

The renowned British historian Edward Gibbon attributed Rome’s decline to a combination of factors, including repeated invasions, financial and political corruption, excessive reliance on mercenary forces, and internal fragmentation among its leaders—all of which contributed to prolonged economic instability.

The question of whether the European Union might one day collapse continues to occupy many minds. Recent academic studies have even revived historical parallels that some observers believe may carry contemporary relevance, particularly among Europe’s intellectual and political elites.

In early May, a genetic study examining populations living along the borders of the Western Roman Empire around AD 476 concluded that demographic transformation played a significant role in Rome’s decline. According to the study, peaceful integration and intermarriage between Romans and foreign populations gradually altered the empire’s social composition.

The research was conducted by Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz in Germany, founded in 1477 and recognized as one of the country’s oldest and most prestigious academic institutions.

What drew particular attention was the study’s argument that small groups of migrants—often family units or even individual settlers—integrated into local populations through marriage and social interaction. Over time, this process contributed to the emergence of a more diverse society in which non-Roman cultures, customs, and ways of life increasingly interacted within the empire.

According to this interpretation, Rome’s decline did not necessarily require massive invading armies; demographic and cultural transformation may have played a significant role.

This raises an important question: Was the publication of such a study purely an exercise in historical scholarship, or does it also serve as a warning about the possibility of history repeating itself?

The answer leads directly to what some right-wing voices in Europe and the United States have called the “Great Replacement” theory—the idea that native populations are gradually being replaced by foreign peoples through immigration and demographic change.

Supporters of this view often point to refugee flows, immigration trends, population growth among migrant communities, and the identity-related challenges associated with multicultural societies. Yet many critics regard this theory as a profound misconception.

The narrative has been promoted by figures such as the French writer Renaud Camus, British politician Nigel Farage, American strategist Steve Bannon, and others who argue that the fate of the West as a whole—not merely that of the European Union—could mirror the fall of the Roman Empire.

A closer examination, however, suggests that the comparison is fundamentally flawed.

Ancient Rome was an expansionist imperial power built on conquest and domination. Its rise generated geopolitical rivalries and economic conflicts that eventually weakened the empire from within.

The European Union faces a very different set of challenges. The greatest threat confronting Europe today is not demographic transformation but internal fragmentation and the difficulty of achieving consensus among member states on major strategic issues—particularly relations with Russia.

Moreover, the concept of European unity is fundamentally secular and cultural in nature, unlike the later Roman Empire, which was deeply shaped by religious structures and imperial authority. The European Union emerged from voluntary alliances and treaties rather than from military conquest or imperial ambition.

In the end, the most important lesson may be the simplest one:

History does not repeat itself.