A Reading of Iran’s Strategic Shift

A few days ago, the United States halted its nighttime strikes on Iran. Trump justified the pause by saying: “The Iranians politely asked us to do so, and they wanted to hold talks.” Within hours, however, Iran launched an attack on a U.S. military base in the region, along with other targets.

Instead of following its usual approach over the previous weeks—responding to American strikes—Tehran chose to take the initiative and launch an attack. Is this shift in Iran’s strategy permanent, or is it temporary and aimed at achieving specific objectives? Does Iran understand the consequences of such a move and has it prepared for the repercussions? And what options does Trump have for dealing with this unexpected development, which has complicated the situation in ways few anticipated?

Almost no one appears to have a clear understanding of the reasons behind this striking Iranian shift, or of the extent of support for it within Iran’s leadership.

Some interpretations suggest that the current state of neither war nor peace is severely damaging to Iran. The latest U.S. strikes have been extremely intense, perhaps exceeding the attacks carried out during the aggression that began on February 28. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in particular, may have wanted to put an end to this situation—either by forcing Trump to make concessions over the Strait of Hormuz and halt the fighting during renewed negotiations, or by drawing the United States into a ground war that the IRGC understands Trump would be reluctant to undertake. Even if he were to take that risk, such a war could turn into another Vietnam, and perhaps another Afghanistan.

At the same time, Iran is hardening its demands regarding the Strait. It has rejected Omani “compromise” proposals. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said: “We cannot consider ourselves victorious if the Strait returns to the situation it was in before the war. The Strait is a defensive instrument and a pillar of our national security.”

Hamid Reza, an Iranian-born researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said: “It appears that something fundamental has changed in Iran’s approach. It has concluded that taking the initiative and launching attacks is the only practical option for dealing with Trump.” Tehran interpreted America’s decision to halt its strikes for several days as a sign of strategic weakness rather than restraint.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. administration appears unable to formulate a clear and coherent strategy. Lyle Goldstein, a researcher at the U.S.-based Defense Priorities organization, expressed this view by saying: “There are no good options available to Washington. We are really in a bind.”

Trump appears to have only two options: soften his position on the Strait of Hormuz or return to a prolonged conflict.

Both options are difficult and currently unacceptable. Reports leaked to NBC News that Trump expressed deep frustration during a high-level security meeting over the failure to reach an agreement with Tehran point to the absence of a clear strategy regarding the duration of the war and the steps required to bring it to an end.

There is no agreement even on the war’s fundamental objective. Is it to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons? To guarantee freedom of navigation? Or to destroy Iran’s missile system?

Yes, the United States has achieved a series of tactical victories, but it has failed to translate them into strategic gains.

Trump is now looking for friends to help him, despite having insulted them in recent months, accusing them of cowardice and criticizing their refusal to join him in the war.

Talk of an international conference to be hosted by London on navigation in the Gulf, with the aim of reaching a compromise acceptable to Iran, is one possible option.

As its efforts falter, the U.S. administration is practicing the very “strategic patience” that others had previously employed in dealing with Washington.

How circumstances change.

Source: Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper